Turning point or breaking point? Biden’s pause on weapons tests ties to Israel

The message was not getting through. Not through the phone calls or the emissaries or the public statements or the joint committee meetings. And so, frustrated that he was being ignored, US President Joe Biden chose a more dramatic way of making himself clear to Israeli leaders. He stopped sending the bombs.Biden’s decision to pause the delivery of 3,500 bombs to Israel was meant to convey a powerful signal that his patience has limits. While insisting that his support for the Jewish state remains “ironclad”, Biden for the first time since the Israel-Hamas war erupted last fall opted to use his power as Israel’s chief arms supplier to demonstrate his discontent.The hold on the bombs represents a significant turning point in the 76-year-old relationship between the US and Israel, historically one of the closest security partnerships in the world. But it may not necessarily be a breaking point. The Biden administration is still allowing most other weapons to be sent to Israel, and in fact officials emphasised that no final decision has been made on the bombs that are currently in limbo.Watch: Biden stalls shipment of weapons to Israel medium nocaption109969448Biden hopes the selective pause will prompt Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to forgo a long-threatened invasion of Rafah, the southern Gaza Strip city where more than 1mn Palestinians have taken refuge.The president has objected to such an operation out of fear that widespread civilian casualties could be caused by American bombs. He said on May 8 that he would also block the delivery of artillery shells that could be fired into the urban neighbourhoods of Rafah.“I have made it clear to Bibi and the war cabinet, they are not going to get our support if in fact they go on these population centres,” the president said in an interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett on May 8, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. “We are not walking away from Israel’s security; we are walking away from Israel’s ability to wage war in those areas.”He acknowledged in a way that he has rarely done that American bombs have killed innocent Palestinians. “Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centres,” Biden said.Intense frictionIsraeli plans to storm Rafah have been a source of intense friction with the Biden administration for months. While the Americans oppose such an operation, the Israelis maintain they need to go into Rafah to finish destroying Hamas, which killed 1,200 people in its October 7, 2023 terrorist attack on Israel.The dispute has come to a head in recent days as Netanyahu and his war cabinet appeared close to a decision to move against Rafah despite US objections. Biden administration officials said they had begun reviewing arms last month that could be used in the operation and that the president had signed off on the bomb hold last week. medium109979119“The decision means Biden has decided to use his only real form of leverage over Bibi — withholding weapons,” said Cliff Kupchan, chair of the Eurasia Group, who had just returned from a trip to West Asia. “It’s a low point for US-Israel relations, as it begins to put Israeli security in play. Biden had no choice. The war is a drag on his election campaign, on Democratic Party unity and on US standing in the world.”The administration was hoping the pause would send a quiet message and did not announce it publicly at first, but the Israelis leaked it. In the days since the decision, Israel ordered the evacuation of 110,000 civilians in Rafah, conducted airstrikes against targets on the edges of the city, sent in tanks and seized the crossing with Egypt. Although these moves were characterised as limited and not the beginning of the promised assault, they touched off alarms in the White House.The Israeli actions, which came in part in response to Hamas rocket attacks that killed four Israeli soldiers last weekend, seem to be intended to keep the pressure on Hamas to agree to a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of some of the hostages taken October 7.Whether such a deal is possible remains uncertain. CIA director William Burns, who has been deeply involved in the negotiations, met on on May 8 with Netanyahu in Jerusalem even as other officials conferred in Cairo about competing offers from the two sides. Reaching such a deal may be the only way to avoid a more serious rupture between Israel and the Biden administration, analysts said.Watch: Israeli forces seize control of Rafah crossing medium nocaptionhttps://youtu.be/I6EiAteNqa4?si=S1KiNuCC_JBziwOW“What they are asking for is for Israel not to go into Rafah in a significant way,” said Elliott Abrams, a West Asia specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations who served in multiple Republican administrations. “Barring a hostage deal, I think the Israelis are going to go into Rafah, and it is going to cause a great deal of tension.”Overall, since World War II, the US has given more aid to Israel than any other country in the world. As of last year, the US had provided $158.7bn to Israel since its founding, the vast bulk of it, or $124.3bn, for its military and its missile defences, according to the Congressional Research Service.Under a 10-year memorandum of understanding sealed by President Barack Obama, Washington currently provides $3.8bn a year in military aid, not counting the $15bn in additional help approved last month by Congress and signed into law by Biden.GOP backlashRepublicans quickly criticised Biden on May 8 after defence secretary Lloyd Austin publicly confirmed reports of the delayed bomb shipment at a Senate hearing. “This is obscene. It is absurd,” senator Lindsey Graham told the defence secretary. “Give Israel what they need to fight the war they can’t afford to lose.”Senator Mitch McConnell, the party’s leader in the Senate, said he had called Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, on May 8 “to express my concern to the administration that the delay of shipment of weapons to Israel is just another way of trying to tell an ally how to conduct the war”. He and House Speaker Mike Johnson later sent a letter to Biden protesting the decision.On the other hand, Democrats and progressives who have been pressing Biden to limit or cut off arms to curtail Israel’s war said the president’s action was long overdue and still not enough after more than 34,000 have died in Gaza, including both combatants and civilians.Senator Bernie Sanders said Biden’s decision was “absolutely right” but should only be the start. “Our leverage is clear,” he said. “Over the years, the US has provided tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Israel. We can no longer be complicit in Netanyahu’s horrific war against the Palestinian people.” medium109979167The decision got the attention of Netanyahu and his war cabinet. Shalom Lipner, a longtime adviser to multiple Israeli prime ministers, said it “struck a deep chord of concern within Israel, where people are wondering how limiting Israel’s access to weaponry — a move which is certain to embolden Hamas — might be reconciled with Biden’s oft-repeated ironclad commitment to its security”.But he added that “it would be to Israel’s strategic detriment for the Netanyahu government to ignore the loud pushback from its main provider of military and diplomatic support”.Kupchan said that the course of the US-Israeli relationship would turn on what happens next. If Netanyahu defers to Biden’s judgement on Rafah, it may just be a momentary flare-up. But if the two leaders remain at a standoff, it could lead to a broader cutoff of weapons, which would have a more lasting effect.“The foundation of US-Israel relations is so strong that it won’t be significantly damaged by this move,” Kupchan said. “Further withholdings, however, while quite unlikely, would be a different story.”